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Carlsen retains the World Championship crown

Question

Magnus Carlsen is currently the strongest chess player in the world and has maintained the #1 ranking spot since 2011. In the most recent World Championship in London 2018 he defeated Fabiano Caruana in tie-breaks after 12 draws.

Ian Nepomniachtchi won the right to play Carlsen by winning the 2020-21 Candidates Tournament. Ian Nepomniachtchi is the current world #3 and holds a positive head-to-head against Magnus Carlsen +4 -1 =6. (Although several of his wins came when they were both very young).

The expected format is that Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniachtchi will play a best-of 14 match + tiebreaks in Dubai at Expo 2020 (in December 2021) although this question does not depend on when the match takes place.

Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?

This question resolves positive if Magnus Carlsen wins the next World Championship match (regardless of challenger or location in the event of delays). It also resolves positive if he retains the crown because of the challenger defaulting in some way. This question resolves negative if Magnus Carlsen loses the next World Championship match.

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