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    Próspera population in 2035

    Created by 2e10e122 on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by 2e10e122 on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    Próspera is

    a private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture.

    The city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras.

    The city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies.

    For an in-depth review of the project, see this post by Scott Alexander.

    What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?

    This question resolves as the number of people who are citizens of Próspera as of 2035-01-01, according to the city's own data.

    If this data is published with lower than daily resolution (e.g. monthly or yearly), the number corresponding to the time interval containing 2035-01-01 will be used (e.g. January 2035 or 2035).

    If this data is published with higher than daily resolution, it will be averaged over all data points contained in 2035-01-01.

    If Próspera ceases to exist before resolution, the question resolves as 0. Three randomly appointed active Metaculus moderators will determine via simple majority vote whether the city has ceased to exist or not. This will cover edge cases like the city changing its name and location or the project undergoing substantial legal and political changes.

    If Próspera still exists but the population data is not available even upon request, this question resolves ambiguous.

    Categories:
    Politics
    Social issues

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