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    Monthly peak in new Virginia COVID cases

    Created by Metaculus-Partners on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Metaculus-Partners on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.
    Partnered with Virginia Department of Health.
    Healthy Communities Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

    Question

    A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 cases will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 155,195 new cases were reported.

    In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?

    Please note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:

    • May 2021: 1
    • June 2021: 2
    • July 2021: 3
    • August 2021: 4
    • September 2021: 5
    • October 2021: 6
    • November 2021: 7
    • December 2021: 8
    • January 2022: 9
    • February 2022: 10
    • March 2022: 11

    This question resolves on the basis of COVID-19 case data provided by VDH.

    Categories:
    Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)
    Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 1

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