25 comments
62 forecasters
Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 6, 2021
Closes:May 11, 2021
Resolved:May 14, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2021
Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?
6% chance
48
What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?
60.5%
(52.4 - 68.9)
60.5%
(52.4 - 68.9)
9 forecasters
What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?
1023 events
(788 - 1356)
1023 events
(788 - 1356)
37 forecasters