Related Question on Metaculus:
President Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan debt per person. Some Democrats have called for $50,000 to be forgiven per person. He has asked for this to be done through Congress, but more recently he has also been considering directly taking executive action for loan cancellation. On April 1, he requested Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to write a memo exploring how much student debt the president is legally able to forgive.
As for the timeline of when student loan forgiveness may happen, CNBC's "$10,000 student loan forgiveness: Can Biden eliminate the debt?" (May 1, 2021) writes:
If Biden chooses to cancel the debt through executive action, in theory borrowers could see their balances reduced or eliminated pretty quickly. But such a move may be met by court challenges, which could lead to delays.
A clearer picture may soon emerge.
“If Biden decides he can do it via executive order, I expect we’ll hear about it by June or July,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.
If the White House opts to leave student loan forgiveness to Congress, Democrats would likely use the budget reconciliation process to get it done.
That’s because that process allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority, which is all they have. Other bills typically must garner 60 votes to advance, thanks to Senate procedural rules. Republicans are largely hostile toward the idea of a student debt jubilee.
The next budget reconciliation process will likely be in the fall.
Expert opinions on whether loan forgiveness will hapepn (Time, April 29, 2021):
“A blanket $10,000 in student loan forgiveness is good for individuals, but it’s bad policy unless they do something to fix the system,” says Robert Farrington, CEO and founder of The College Investor. “I personally don’t think anything will pass.”
“I would like to see a higher education reform package if there is student loan forgiveness,” Farrington says. “If Biden tries to do it by executive order, I would not expect it happening right away. It’ll probably get tied up with lawsuits and litigation. However, if Congress manages to pass a bill that allows student loan forgiveness sometime this summer, then I think it would happen right away.”
“I think the $10,000 in forgiveness is likely, but I’m cautious about anything more than that,” says Laurel Taylor, CEO and founder of FutureFuel.io.
Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?
This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2024, a presidential executive order is signed or a Congressional bill is signed into law (or other legal means are used) that cancels at least $10,000 of US federal student loan debt for each person, and there is credible evidence that at least one student actually has received the promised debt cancellation from the bill or executive order before January 1, 2024.
There may be restrictions on who is eligible for loan forgiveness of $10,000, but these restrictions must not withhold debt cancellation from more than 10% of American citizens at least 21 years old with at least $1,000 of federal student debt. If a borrower has less than $10,000 of debt, they will be considered to have "recieved $10,000 of loan forgiveness" if their entire debt amount (under $10,000) is forgiven.
If no such loan forgiveness occurs, for example if the bill or executive order is declared unconstitutional before any student receives debt forgiveness, this question will resolve as No.
See edit history under the fine print
August 25, 2022 - casens - made a clarification that individuals who have less than 10k of student debt will be considered to have recieved the full forgiveness amount if their entire debt is forgiven.