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Gas price after EIP-1559

Question

Ethereum is the second largest blockchain in market capitalization of its base currency (ETH), and the first and largest Turing-complete blockchain. Users pay fees so that nodes will include their transactions in the chain. The fee attached to an Ethereum transaction is usually called "gas".

Currently, the price of gas is determined via auction. When users submit transactions to the blockchain they indicate how much they're willing to pay for their transaction to be included in the next block. Nodes then sort transactions selfishly to maximize their profit. This leads to fee volatility and results in long delays for transactions submitted with low bids, among other issues.

Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559 seeks to address this by introducing new pricing mechanism. With EIP-1559, a base fee is calculated dynamically as a function of network congestion. Crucially, this base fee is "burned" i.e. forever removed from the ETH supply. On top of this base fee, users can add a priority fee that works similarly to current fees.

The effect this will have on gas price remains unclear, with Ethereum core developers opining that it will have no overall impact.

EIP-1559 is scheduled to launch as part of the London upgrade on 2021/07/14.

What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?

This question will resolve as the (daily) average price of gas, in gwei, one week after EIP-1559 is successfully deployed. What constitutes a successful deployment is defined in the fine print.

Data will be pulled from YCharts or, if that source was unavailable, from Etherscan.

If no successful deployment of EIP-1559 happens before the end of 2021, this question resolves ambiguous.

If the upgrade results in the network splitting into two blockchains, only one of which adheres to EIP-1559, then this branch must have the majority of nodes on its side for the deployment to be considered successful. In this case, the question will resolve according to the price of gas in the upgraded branch.

If there is no split, the deployment is also considered successful.

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