143 comments
205 forecasters
Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?
37%chance
Ambiguous
The community gave this a 37% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 20, 2021
Closes:Feb 25, 2022
Resolved:Dec 8, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2021
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Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
1% chance
94
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
45% chance
60
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
1% chance
267