143 comments
205 forecasters
Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?
37%chance
Ambiguous
The community gave this a 37% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 20, 2021
Closes:Feb 25, 2022
Resolved:Dec 8, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2021
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
1.5% chance
81
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
2% chance
253
Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?
3% chance
44