5 comments
68 forecasters
Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 18, 2021
Closes:Nov 10, 2021
Resolved:Dec 29, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
25% chance
2.1k
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?
10% chance
43
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?
10% chance
168