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Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q5

Background

Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.

However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?

Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.

Sources for live-updates:

Question

For this question, you are asked to forecast:

Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?

  • Implication: Most rockets fired at Israel in any given year or conflict since at least 2008

Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com.

Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series

Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter.

Base-Rate Data

UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties

Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/

Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/

Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/

Question with Resolution Criteria

Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?

This question will resolve positively if both the Wikipedia and Jewish Virtual Library pages report over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021.

If only one of the sources reports over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel, and the difference between the sources is more than 500 instances, then the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise it resolves positively.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.