M
Question
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Image
    •

    • Your submission is now a Draft.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Pending

    This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators.

    We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.

    If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment.

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    It now needs to be approved by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    {{qctrl.question.title}}

    {{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
    {{"myPredictionLabel" | translate}}:  
    {{ qctrl.question.resolutionString() }}
    {{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
    My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}
    Created by: GlobalGuessing and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Background

    Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.

    However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?

    Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.

    Sources for live-updates:

    Question

    For this question, you are asked to forecast:

    Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?

    • Implications: (A) Unless dramatic increase in fire rate, greatly extended fighting, (B) More foreign funding of Hamas than likely expected

    Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com.

    Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series

    Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter.

    Base-Rate Data

    UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties

    Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/

    Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/

    Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/

    Question with Resolution Criteria

    Categories:
    Geopolitics – Armed Conflict
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}