33 comments
264 forecasters
Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?
0.3%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 15, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 15, 2021
Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?
4% chance
261
Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?
68.1% chance
140
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
0.1% chance
34