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Coalition to win Australian federal election

Question

Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively.

From Wikipedia:

The next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.

All 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.

The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote.

Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?

This question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition.

It resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition

If no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government.

If the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.

If at any time at least 24 hours after polls open for the associated election, this question has a community prediction at least as confident as 4% or 96%, the question will close (but not resolve) 18 hours after that time.

"The next federal election" refers to the election for members of the House of Representatives of the 47th parliament of Australia.

Normally this would be at the same time as a half-Senate election (or a full Senate election in the case of a double dissolution), but in the unlikely event that the elections are held at different times, this question refers to the election for the House of Representatives only.

Categories:
Politics

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