46 comments
235 forecasters
Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 8, 2021
Closes:Jan 15, 2023
Resolved:Jan 5, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 8, 2021
Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?
5% chance
132
Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?
2.5% chance
173
Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?
25% chance
54