Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Alien tech in solar system before 2030


The Defense Department started collecting UFO/UAP reports in 2007 as part of the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program and the later Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force. News of these programs and associated leaked videos have brought unprecedented mainstream attention to UFOs/UAP.

Before 2030, will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system?

This question will resolve positively iff by 2030, 4 credible media sources report that non-human extra-terrestrial technology has been discovered in the solar system (within Neptune's orbit). This may pertain to current claims of UFOs/UAP, events between now and 2030, or discoveries of archaelogical evidence (defunct or non-operational technology, found on earth or in the solar system). This question resolves negatively if there are no sufficient reports.

for this question, credible media sources will include:

  • The Associated Press
  • The New York Times
  • The Wall Street Journal
  • The Washington Post
  • The Los Angeles Times
  • Time Magazine
  • The Economist
  • The Times of London
  • The Financial Times
  • Le Monde
  • or Die Zeit

Additionally, A report from a branch of the federal government that claims that aliens are the most likely explanation of a reported observation will count as a source.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site