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54 forecasters

1

54 forecasters

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

86%chance

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1 comment21 forecasters

First detonation accidental/unauthorized?

0 comments24 forecasters

First Detonation by 2050 Inadvertent

35 comments193 forecasters

No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations before 2035

2 comments64 forecasters

Fatal Non-state Nuclear Detonation by 2030

0 comments31 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation before the following years?

0 comments135 forecasters

Non-Test Nuclear Detonation in Iran Before 2027?

11 comments30 forecasters

Nuclear Detonations on Battlefield Targets

Current estimate

69 comments530 forecasters

At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050