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49 forecasters
Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?
90%chance
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Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?
10% chance
18
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?
80% chance
174
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9% chance
20