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54
comments
291
forecasters
Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?
80.9%
chance
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Predict
Top Key Factors
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Tesla's stock performance has been both remarkable and volatile, with a 238% surge from its lowest point between April 22 and December 17, 2024, followed by a 21% decline by January 2, 2025.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
Tesla's market capitalization exceeds $1 trillion as of January 2025, which significantly impacts Musk's net worth.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
Elon Musk became the first person to surpass a net worth of $400 billion in December 2024, indicating his capacity to reach unprecedented wealth levels.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
0 vote
An insider share sale of SpaceX in December 2024 boosted Musk's net worth by about $50 billion, according to Bloomberg.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
JPMorgan has raised concerns about Tesla’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, highlighting a potential $3.2 billion decrease in earnings before interest and taxes.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
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Authors:
Charles
Opened:
Jun 27, 2021
Closes:
Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:
Jun 28, 2021
Economy & Business
🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard
News Match
Tesla investors set to vote on Elon Musk's proposed $1 trillion pay package
CBS
•
Nov 4, 2025
World's Largest Wealth Fund Rejects Musk's $1 Trillion Pay Package
Business Insider
•
Nov 4, 2025
Elon Musk’s $1tn Tesla pay deal to be rejected by huge Norway wealth fund
Guardian
•
Nov 4, 2025
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