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47
152
forecasters
26
47 comments
152 forecasters
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
2 more...
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
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Current estimate
1.01 weapons
1.01 weapons
(<1 - 8.16)
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Forecast Timeline
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Comments (47)
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4 comments
67 forecasters
# Nuclear Weapons Used by 2050, if Any
Current estimate
7.04 weapons
69 comments
529 forecasters
At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050
35%
chance
3 comments
17 forecasters
Number of Nuclear Weapons in 2050
Current estimate
10.7k weapons
6 comments
74 forecasters
10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035?
80%
chance
7 comments
61 forecasters
US Fatality from Nuclear Weapon Detonation
28%
chance
20 comments
47 forecasters
Nuclear States in 2030
9
50%
10
33%
11
5%
8
1%
3 others
5 comments
47 forecasters
Number of Nuclear Detonations by 2050
over 100
39%
over 1,000
9%
6 comments
46 forecasters
Number of Cities Attacked Offensively
Europe
14.7
Russia
13.2
United States
10.7
China
10.5
4 others