6 comments
33 forecasters
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?
Current estimate
0.249%
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?
34 forecasters
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.0269%
(0.00752 - 0.0929)
0.0269%
(0.00752 - 0.0929)
8 forecasters
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?
0.51%
(0.0179 - 0.979)
0.51%
(0.0179 - 0.979)
29 forecasters