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    UK third wave?

    Created by alexrjl and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

    The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named "Delta". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant.

    The UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta.

    This question asks:

    Will the UK reach 100 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?

    This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 700.

    If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to ourworldindata.

    Data updates meaning that more than 350 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).

    This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.

    Categories:
    Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)

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