🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?

Resolved :50.450.5
7
24
Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction50.5 (49.7 - 51.2)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>80
...
...
...
...
49.69
50.47
51.2
0.1%

What was the final result?50.4

Community Baseline Score
135.2
Community Peer Score
14.7
Authors:
j.m.
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Politics
2021 Leaderboard
New York City
Eric Adams (politician)
Ranked-choice voting in the United States
New York (state)

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