35 comments
410 forecasters
Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 1, 2018
Closes:Dec 15, 2018
Resolved:Dec 23, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 1, 2018
If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?
76% chance
24
Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
3% chance
44
If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?
66% chance
38