Question

Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?

Resolved:No

35 comments35

Total Forecasters410

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.5

Community Peer Score

2.8

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 1, 2018

Closes:

Dec 15, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 23, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 1, 2018

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2018 Leaderboard

U.S. bombing Iran nuclear sites is a massive gamble by Trump

MSNBC•Jun 22, 2025

Trump: US launches strike on three nuclear sites in Iran

USA Today•Jun 22, 2025

Israel-Iran conflict: If Donald Trump backs out of launching strike, will Israel use nukes to destroy Iran's Fordow facility?

•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

70%

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

42%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 1, 2018

Closes:

Dec 15, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 23, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 1, 2018

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2018 Leaderboard

U.S. bombing Iran nuclear sites is a massive gamble by Trump

MSNBC•Jun 22, 2025

Trump: US launches strike on three nuclear sites in Iran

USA Today•Jun 22, 2025

Israel-Iran conflict: If Donald Trump backs out of launching strike, will Israel use nukes to destroy Iran's Fordow facility?

•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

70%

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

42%