Some researchers suggest the odds of our current reality being a simulation are very high.

Under some scenarios, our current reality could be a simulation created under a reality--itself possibly a simulation--historically coincident with our own apparent universe to at least the present, in many or all respects.

In this case, since the mother universe corresponds substantially or fully to our own so far, one obvious question is at what date in the mother universe (equivalent to a possibly divergent copy of our future) was our own simulation created?

Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

Slider is in billions of years from instantiation of mother universe. Upper boundary is open.

Resolves when either 3 credible peer reviewed studies or 4 credible media sources--as determined by metaculus moderators--all announce and agree with each other to within 100 million years on a date of instantiation, in the mother universe, for the simulation constituting our reality either in conjunction with the declaration that we are in a simulation or merely taking it for granted.

Resolves ambiguous if we're provably in a simulation where the mother universe does not contain fully or substantially the history of our universe up to at least the time this question goes live.

Resolves ambiguous if we're provably in a simulation but the concept of a mother universe is incorrect or inapplicable.

Resolves ambiguous if proven we're not in a simulation.

If the mother universe is itself a simulation, that's no problem.

Lower and upper boundaries are open for dates outside of the given range.