Question
Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?
Total Forecasters23
Community Prediction
13.1 billion years
(0.465 billion years - 14 billion years)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 0.4655 | — |
| median | 13.15 | — |
| upper 75% | 14.01 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >20 | 8.7% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 10, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2500
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 12, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Aug 10, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2500
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 12, 2021