Metaculus

Your submission is now a Draft.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question.

When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

Pending

This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators.

We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.

If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

It now needs to be approved by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions

{{"myPredictionLabel" | translate}}:

{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions

My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}

Created by: moscars and

co-authors

, {{coauthor.username}}

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Próspera is a private charter city and ZEDE (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatán in Honduras.

The project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.

According to Scott Alexander, Próspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.

Próspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.

Predict the population in 2035 in this related question.

Categories:

on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

Your submission is now a Draft.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

Pending

You have been invited to co-author this question.

{{qctrl.question.title}}

Make a Prediction

Prediction