Question

[Short Fuse]: Will the Yihetan Dam collapse, killing at least 1,000 people, before September 1 2021?

Resolved:Ambiguous

10 comments10

Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction

(1% - 19%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jul 23, 2021

Closes:

Aug 14, 2021

Resolves:

Aug 14, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 24, 2021

2021 Leaderboard

China on high alert for floods as record rain triggers landslides and building collapse

Independent•Jul 3, 2025

China’s north and west on red alert for heavy rains after deadly floods

Al Jazeera•Jul 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

35.1%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

15%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jul 23, 2021

Closes:

Aug 14, 2021

Resolves:

Aug 14, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 24, 2021

2021 Leaderboard

China on high alert for floods as record rain triggers landslides and building collapse

Independent•Jul 3, 2025

China’s north and west on red alert for heavy rains after deadly floods

Al Jazeera•Jul 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

35.1%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

15%