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Will Yihetan Dam collapse before Sept 1 2021?


According to a July 21 report from Singapore's Channel News Asia:

The Chinese army warned that a stricken dam in the centre of the country "could collapse at any time" after being severely damaged in torrential storms that killed at least three people and brought the region to a standstill.

Weather authorities have issued the highest warning level for central Henan province as downpours caused widespread disruption and the evacuation of residents of flooded streets.

On Tuesday evening the regional unit of the People's Liberation Army warned that the relentless downpour had caused a 20-meter breach in the Yihetan dam in Luoyang - a city of around seven million people - with the risk that it "may collapse at any time."

The PLA's Central Theater Command said it had sent soldiers to carry out an emergency response including blasting and flood diversion.

"On Jul 20, a 20m breach occurred at the Yihetan dam .... the riverbank was severely damaged and the dam may collapse at any time," it said in the statement.

[Short Fuse]: Will the Yihetan Dam collapse, killing at least 1,000 people, before September 1 2021?

This question resolves positively if before 00:00 UTC on September 1 2021, it is reported that the Yihetan dam has partially or fully collapsed, leading to flooding that causes the deaths of at least 1,000 people. The collapse must occur before September 1 in order for a positive resolution. If the dam does collapse, the death toll as of two weeks after the collapse should be considered. If this equals or exceeds 1,000 people, the question resolves positively. People listed as "missing" will not be considered dead.

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