34 comments
49 forecasters
Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?
67%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 67% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 13, 2021
Closes:Jan 2, 2025
Resolved:Nov 26, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 14, 2021
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
76 forecasters
Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?
45% chance
32
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
97% chance
173