Question

When will COVID-19 be eradicated?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction

2091

(2064 - 2100)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100
community	2064	2091	>2100	40.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2064	—
median	2091	—
upper 75%	>2100	—
Upper bound
>410244480000%	40.3%	—

Authors:

feistyguar

Opened:

Sep 3, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 5, 2021

World Health Organization

Texas measles outbreak expected to last for months, though vaccinations are up from last year

Associated Press•Mar 22, 2025

Measles outbreak surpasses 350 cases and is expected to keep growing

CNN•Mar 22, 2025

See How Measles Outbreaks Flourish Where Vaccination Rates Fall

Scientific American•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

feistyguar

Opened:

Sep 3, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 5, 2021

World Health Organization

Texas measles outbreak expected to last for months, though vaccinations are up from last year

Associated Press•Mar 22, 2025

Measles outbreak surpasses 350 cases and is expected to keep growing

CNN•Mar 22, 2025

See How Measles Outbreaks Flourish Where Vaccination Rates Fall

Scientific American•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

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How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

148k

When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

Nov 2026