📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?

Resolved :Above upper bound567
6
11
Total Forecasters18
Community Prediction567 (424 - 600)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>600
...
...
...
...
424.3
566.6
>600
42.3%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score
14.9
Community Peer Score
53.5
Authors:
Metaculus-Partnersjuancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
Keep Virginia Safe: Round 2
Health & Pandemics
2021 Leaderboard
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology

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