Question

Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?

Resolved:Yes

11 comments11

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

2.1

Community Baseline Score

-5.8

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Aug 8, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 9, 2021

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

28%

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

3.51

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Aug 8, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 9, 2021

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

28%

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

3.51