Question

Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?

Resolved:Yes
8
11
Total Forecasters35
Community Prediction
99%
(99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
-5.8
Community Peer Score
2.1
Authors:
crule
Opened:Aug 8, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2023
Resolves:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 9, 2021
Geopolitics
Space
Economy & Business
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Anti-satellite weapon
Military science
China
Union of Concerned Scientists
Mission Shakti
The Aerospace Corporation
India
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Aerospace engineering