Question

Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?

Resolved:No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction

30%

(25% - 47%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.8

Community Peer Score

1.1

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 15, 2021

Closes:

Oct 1, 2021

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 15, 2021

Geopolitics

2021 Leaderboard

Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

42.1%

Will Israel exist as a country on January 1, 2060?

85%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 15, 2021

Closes:

Oct 1, 2021

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 15, 2021

Geopolitics

2021 Leaderboard

Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

42.1%

Will Israel exist as a country on January 1, 2060?

85%