Question

Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?

Resolved:No

48 comments48

Total Forecasters135

Community Prediction

10%

(7% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

77.5

Community Peer Score

3.2

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Aug 14, 2021

Closes:

Aug 30, 2021

Resolves:

Sep 19, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 14, 2021

Geopolitics

Politics

2021 Leaderboard

When will the United States reopen its embassy in Kabul Afghanistan?

07 Sep 2028

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

26%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Aug 14, 2021

Closes:

Aug 30, 2021

Resolves:

Sep 19, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 14, 2021

Geopolitics

Politics

2021 Leaderboard

When will the United States reopen its embassy in Kabul Afghanistan?

07 Sep 2028

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

26%