🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many members will the next Bundestag have?

Resolved :736786
10
18
Total Forecasters33
Community Prediction786 (722 - 853)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1.2k
...
...
...
...
721.7
786.1
852.7
0.7%

What was the final result?736

Community Baseline Score
43.8
Community Peer Score
3.0
Authors:
lars3loff
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Politics
2021 Leaderboard
AFD
Bundestag
The Greens – The Green Alternative
Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Free Democratic Party (Germany)
Social Democratic Party of Germany
The Left (Germany)
German federal election

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