Question

How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?

Resolved:32

2 comments2

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction

33.2

(30.1 - 34.5)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	30.05	33.2	34.52
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	30.05	—
median	33.2	—
upper 75%	34.52	—

What was the final result?32

Community Baseline Score

49.4

Community Peer Score

21.2

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners Gaia

Opened:

Aug 18, 2021

Closes:

Aug 22, 2021

Resolves:

Aug 30, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 20, 2021

Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Virginia Lightning Round: Week 2

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%