Question

What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?

Resolved:1.93

3 comments3

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction

3.67

(2.66 - 4.74)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>20
community	2.658	3.668	4.741	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2.658	—
median	3.668	—
upper 75%	4.741	—
Upper bound
>20	0.1%	—

What was the final result?1.93

Community Baseline Score

41.1

Community Peer Score

8.2

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners TomL

Opened:

Aug 18, 2021

Closes:

Aug 22, 2021

Resolves:

Oct 14, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 19, 2021

Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Virginia Lightning Round: Week 2

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years?

142