Question

What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?

Resolved:10.3

2 comments2

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction

10.6

(9.21 - 12)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>30
community	9.205	10.57	11.97	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	9.205	—
median	10.57	—
upper 75%	11.97	—
Upper bound
>30	0.1%	—

What was the final result?10.3

Community Baseline Score

76.7

Community Peer Score

2.1

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners TomL

Opened:

Aug 18, 2021

Closes:

Aug 22, 2021

Resolves:

Sep 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 19, 2021

Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Virginia Lightning Round: Week 2

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

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43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%