Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Date Australia vaccinates 80% from Covid-19

Question

In August 2021, Australia reached a new peak in daily confirmed new Covid-19 cases, surpassing its previous peak set in August 2020.

As of 19 August 2021, Australia's two biggest cities and its capital territory are in lockdown and several other states and regions have recently emerged from their own lockdowns. International travel remains heavily restricted, and the number of travellers allowed into the country has been halved from 6,370 to 3,070 per week.

Under current government policy, vaccination rates will determine when international travel restrictions are loosened and when lockdowns become less likely. At the end of July 2021, the Australian National Cabinet announced a 'Phase B' target of 70% of the eligible population fully vaccinated, and a 'Phase C' target of 80%. In Phase C, the government seeks to "minimise cases without lockdowns", enact only "highly targeted lockdowns", "abolish caps on returning vaccinated Australians", "lift all restrictions on outbound travel for vaccinated Australians" and "allow increased capped entry of student, economic, and humanitarian visa holders", among other relaxations in restrictions.

As of August 19 2021, just over 28% of the eligible population (those aged at least 16) have been fully vaccinated. According to The Guardian, the 80% national target will be reached by the end of November if the the rate of new vaccinations remains fixed at its rate over the past 7 days. However, the experience of other countries has shown that this rate can slow considerably before reaching 80% of the adult population.

For a particular state or territory to enter 'Phase C', the 80% target must be reached in that state or territory as well as in the country as a whole. This question therefore asks about when target will be reached in Australia as a whole as well as in at least half of its states and territories.

When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?

For the predicted event to occur, both of the following two conditions must be met:

  1. At least 80% of the national population aged at least 16 is considered to be fully vaccinated

  2. At least 4 out of the 8 states and territories have each individually met the 80% target

The Australian Government's Daily Vaccine Rollout Update will be used to determine when this event occurs.

In the unlikely event of these reports no longer being released or becoming unavailable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources (the same source may be used to support both conditions).

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.