44 comments
161 forecasters
When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?
Current estimate
16 Jun 2029
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 22, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 22, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?
5% chance
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Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
48% chance
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When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?
Oct 2034
(14 Sep 2029 - Mar 2045)
Oct 2034
(14 Sep 2029 - Mar 2045)
86 forecasters