57 forecasters

Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?

82%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

Opened:

Jan 20, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2070

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 20, 2022