Question

Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters59

Community Prediction

87%

(85% - 91%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 87%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Jan 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2070

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 21, 2022

Geopolitics

Plurality of Americans Believe 'Civil War' Likely in Next Decade—Poll

Newsweek•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?

80%

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

Will there be a war between two or more democratic countries before 2072?

60%