• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
74 comments
241 forecasters

Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?

79%chance
79%chance
ResolvedYes
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 79% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Authors:
TomL
Opened:Sep 1, 2021
Closes:Nov 5, 2024
Resolved:Feb 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 3, 2021
Politics
Elections
🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard
Red State logo
GOP Campaign Arm Says 'Wind Is at Our Back' in 2026, but Is Over-Confidence Really a Good Strategy?
Red State•Nov 4, 2025
AlterNet logo
Both parties struggle to gain voters 12 months out from the 2026 midterms
AlterNet•Oct 29, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

Rep Senate / Dem House
61.2%
Dem Senate / Dem House
20.1%
Rep Senate / Rep House
17.9%
1 other
25 forecasters

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the Senate after the 2026 elections?

1 seats
(0 - 3)
1 seats
(0 - 3)
10 forecasters

Which party will hold the most seats in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?

Republicans
68%
Democrats
31.9%
Other
0.1%
303 forecasters
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature