Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Sam Bankman-Fried to donate $1bn before 2031

Question

Sam Bankman-Fried is a US cryptocurrency billionaire, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion in August 2021, according to Forbes.

Bankman-Fried is a long time advocate for Effective Altruism, and has on numerous occasions stated his intention to give most of his fortune away.

This question asks if he will manage to grant over $1bn 2021 USD before 2031.

Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?

This resolves positive if, by year end 2030, there is a public record of donations by SBF or grants by a grantmaking organisation of which he is the primary funder (see fine print) which total over $1bn in 2021 USD.

Donations to political campaigns or to an unallocated DAF or foundation which is under his control should not be counted for this question. Donations by the FTX Foundation should not count either, except if the assets in question are donated to the Foundation by Bankman-Fried himself and regranted by the question deadline. Donations to foundations or trusts which he does not control, but is a beneficiary of; or that exist wholly, primarily, or partly for the benefit of his friends and family should also be excluded.

If Bankman-Fried is the primary funder of a grantmaking organisation but not the sole funder, the amount granted for the purpose of this qustion should be the best available estimate of what fraction of funding he provides, multiplied by the amount granted.

If he funds such an organisation with a spouse (i.e. similar to Bill and Melinda Gates' Foundation, or Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna's Good Ventures), then their combined contribution should be counted for the purpose of this question.

If some combination of the above options sums to $1bn, without double counting the donation and regranting of the same funds, then this should resolve positively.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.