M
Question
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Image
    •

    • Your submission is now a Draft.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Pending

    This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators.

    We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.

    If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment.

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    It now needs to be approved by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    {{qctrl.question.title}}

    {{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
    {{"myPredictionLabel" | translate}}:  
    {{ qctrl.question.resolutionString() }}
    {{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
    My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}
    Created by: SimonM and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Jsevillamol suggests using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.

    Metaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.

    This question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.

    Categories:
    Metaculus Itself
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}