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Mean log-odds vs probability 1000 questions


Jsevillamol suggests using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.

Metaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.

This question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.

Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?

Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance.

The set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.

If the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.

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Metaculus Itself

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