Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Question
Question
What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?
6
10 comments
10
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
26
Community Prediction
1e-3
Make a Prediction
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Sign Up to Predict
My Prediction
community
<1e-3
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
...
...
52.8%
1e-3
1e-3
1.642e-1
Background Info
Authors:
GoldbergMachinations
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Space
Economy & Business
Technology
SpaceShipTwo
SpaceX reusable launch system
List of space travelers by name
US Department of Defense
Virgin Galactic
New Shepard
Commercial astronaut
Tiangong program
Blue Origin
International Space Station
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback
Comments
recent
? comments
Log in
Load more comments
Follow
embed
Authors:
GoldbergMachinations
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Space
Economy & Business
Technology
SpaceShipTwo
SpaceX reusable launch system
List of space travelers by name
US Department of Defense
Virgin Galactic
New Shepard
Commercial astronaut
Tiangong program
Blue Origin
International Space Station
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback