Question

Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?

Resolved:Yes

48 comments48

Total Forecasters301

Community Prediction

27%

(20% - 36%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 27%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-71.1

Community Peer Score

44.8

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 15, 2018

Closes:

Mar 15, 2019

Resolves:

Dec 19, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 16, 2018

Elections

Politics

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Full List of Democrats Who Voted to Block New Trump Impeachment Articles

Newsweek•Jun 25, 2025

Majority of Democrats vote to table effort to impeach Trump for striking Iran

New York Post•Jun 25, 2025

128 Democrats join House GOP to block progressive's bid to impeach Trump

FOX News•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?

20%

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

41%

Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?

16%