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24 comments
60 forecasters

By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?

63%chance
63%chance
ResolvedYes
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 63% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
johnnycaffeine
Opened:Sep 15, 2021
Closes:Oct 16, 2021
Resolved:Oct 29, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 16, 2021
Health & Pandemics
2021 Leaderboard
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

40% chance
42

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80% chance
24

When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?

20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
5 forecasters
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