24 comments
60 forecasters
By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?
63%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 63% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 15, 2021
Closes:Oct 16, 2021
Resolved:Oct 29, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 16, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?
40% chance
42
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?
80% chance
24
When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?
20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
5 forecasters