Question

Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?

Resolved:No

37 comments37

Total Forecasters166

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

6.0

Community Baseline Score

91.1

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Sep 19, 2021

Closes:

Dec 30, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 21, 2021

Elections

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

‘I’m holding his political wake’: the trumpeter waiting to mark Bolsonaro’s judgment day

Guardian•Aug 31, 2025

What to know about the verdict and sentencing phase of Bolsonaro’s trial in Brazil

Associated Press•Aug 31, 2025

Brazil Poll: Jair Bolsonaro, Banned from Office, Best Candidate Against Socialist Lula in 2026

Breitbart•Aug 28, 2025

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