166 forecasters

Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Sep 19, 2021

Closes:

Dec 30, 2022

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 21, 2021

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Brazil’s former president Bolsonaro has been convicted for a coup attempt. What happens next?

Independent•Sep 12, 2025

Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years in jail for election coup plot

Independent•Sep 12, 2025

Jail for Bolsonaro by no means signals the end of his political movement

Guardian•Sep 12, 2025

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