Question
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <15 Oct 2021 | 0.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 05 May 2023 | — |
| median | 05 Jun 2024 | — |
| upper 75% | 10 Feb 2027 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2099 | 0.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2021