175 forecasters

Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 21, 2021

Closes:

Oct 15, 2021

Resolved:

Nov 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 21, 2021

Economy & Business

🏆 2021 Leaderboard

Odds of Government Shutdown Lasting Another Month Jump—Polymarket

Newsweek•Oct 18, 2025

The IMF Strikes A Warning On US Debt Levels

Forbes•Oct 17, 2025

US Economy Warning Issued as Shutdown Hits Americans

Newsweek•Oct 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

When will Donald Trump sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill averting or ending a government shutdown?

26 Oct 2025 03:14

(19 Oct 2025 11:06 - >01 Nov 2025)

26 Oct 2025 03:14

(19 Oct 2025 11:06 - >01 Nov 2025)