5 comments
5 forecasters
When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closes:Mar 14, 2025
Resolved:Oct 27, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2021
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
10 May 2029
(09 Nov 2026 - Oct 2033)
10 May 2029
(09 Nov 2026 - Oct 2033)
175 forecasters
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
1.3 years
(1.06 - 2.53)
1.3 years
(1.06 - 2.53)
41 forecasters
When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?
19 Jul 2026
(12 Apr 2026 - 26 Nov 2026)
19 Jul 2026
(12 Apr 2026 - 26 Nov 2026)
28 forecasters