2 comments
79 forecasters
Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?
53%chance
This question is closed for predictions.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 19, 2018
Closed:Apr 30, 2019
Scheduled resolution:Apr 30, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 19, 2018
When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?
Mar 2047
(Nov 2034 - Sep 2061)
Mar 2047
(Nov 2034 - Sep 2061)
22 forecasters
Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?
5% chance
108
When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?
Oct 2042
(Aug 2033 - Sep 2056)
Oct 2042
(Aug 2033 - Sep 2056)
42 forecasters